Siyasa

Zaben 2023: Tinubu Da Kwankwanso Da Atiku Da Obi A Sikeli

Written by Ahmad Munkaila

A lokacin da ya rage kasa da kwana 20 a ba da filin fara yakin neman zaben Shugaban Kasa na badi, Aminiya ta yi nazarin yadda akalar siyasar kasar na za ta karkata a tsakanin ’yan takarar Shugaban Kasa 18 da ake da su.

A ranar 25 ga Fabrairun 2023 ne za a gudanar da zaben Shugaban Kasa da na ’Yan Majalisar Dokoki ta Kasa.

A jadawalin da Hukumar Zabe (INEC) ta fitar ranar 2 ga Agustan bana ya nuna ’yan Najeriya miliyan 96.2 suka mallaki katin zabe.

Fashin baki game da karfi da rauni da karbuwa da tasirin jam’iyya da kuma yawan magoya bayan kowane daya daga cikin ’yan takarar Shugaban Kasa su 18 ya nuna cikin wadanda za su gaji Shugaba Buhari akwai ko dai Atiku Abubakar na Jam’iyyar PDP ko Bola Ahmed Tinubu na Jam’iyyar APC ko kuma Peter Obi na Jam’iyyar LP ne, inda wasu ke ganin sabanin farko-farko, takarar Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso na Jam’iyyar NNPP ta samu tasgaro a yanzu.

Karkasuwar kuri’un jihohi

Shiyyar Arewa maso Yamma na da kuri’a miliyan 22.67. A shekarar 2019, shiyyar na da mutum miliyan 20.15 na wadanda suka yi rajistar zabe.

Shiyyar da ke biye mata ita ce shiyyar Kudu maso Yamma, wadda take da kuri’a miliyan 18.3. A shekarar 2019 tana da kuri’a miliyan 16.29 ne.

Sai shiyyar Kudu maso Kudu ta uku da kuri’a miliyan 15.2 kari a kan kuri’a miliyan 12.8 a shekarar 2019.

Shiyyar na da jihohin da suka hada da Akwa Ibom da Ribas da Kuros Riba da Bayelsa da Edo da kuma Delta.

Sai Arewa ta Tsakiya da ta kunshi jihohin Nasarawa da Kogi da Binuwai da Neja da Kwara da Filato, wadda take da kuri’a miliyan 14.1 yayin da shiyyar Arewa maso Gabas ta samu karin mutum miliyan 1.5 daga yadda suke a shekarar 2019 wanda ya sa a halin yanzu ta kai kuri’a miliyan 12.8 na masu rajista.

Yankin Kudu maso Gabas kuwa da ya kunshi jihohi biyar da ya sa ya zama mafi kankantar shiyya a cikinsu yana da kuri’a miliyan 11.49.

Shiyyar ta kunshi jihohin Ebonyi da Enugu da Abiya da Anambra da Imo. Sai kuma Babban Birnin Tarayya, Abuja da ke da kuri’a miliyan 1.5.

A kididdigar alkaluma na jihohi, har yanzu Jihar Legas ce ke kan gaba da kuri’a miliyan 7.1. Sai Jihar Kano ke biye da kuri’a miliyan 6.02 bayan ta samu karin kuri’a dubu 569, 103.

Jihar Kaduna ta samu haurawa kadan ta kai miliyan 4.4 yayin da Jihar Ribas mai kuri’a miliyan 3.68 ta wuce Jihar Katsina wacce take da kuri’a miliyan 3.57 a yanzu.

Sai Jihar Delta da Oyo masu kuri’a miliyan 3.3 kowace.

Jihar Ekiti ta ci gaba da rike matsayinta na jiha mai karancin kuri’u, inda a yanzu take da masu rajistar da suka kai miliyan 1 da dubu 34 da 911 bayan ta haura daga dubu 909 da 967.

Tinubu

Tsohon Gwamnan Jihar Legas Bola Tinubu, tsohon Gwamnan bai boye yadda yake tsananin kaunar ganin ya cim ma burinsa na mulkin Najeriya ba.

Mai shekara 70, Tinubu, ya yi duk mai yiwuwa domin ya samu takarar Jam’iyyar APC duk da bayanai sun ce ba haka Shugaban Jam’iyyar Sanata Abdullahi Adamu da wasu daga Fadar Shugaban Kasa suka so ba.

Jan ragamar shugabancin kasa da Jam’iyyar APC ke yi tare da gwamnoni 22 da ke mulki a karkashin jam’iyyar na daga cikin abin da masu tallata Tinubu ke ganin lokaci kawai ake jira domin rantsar da Jagaban Borgu a Fadar Shugaban Kasa bayan lashe zaben 25 ga Fabrairun 2023.

Sai dai duk da haka, zabin tsohon Gwamnan Jihar Borno, Kashim Shettima a matsayin mai rufa masa baya don zama Mataimakin Shugaban Kasa ya haifar masa da ce-ce-ku-ce tare da zazzafar suka.

Tsohon Sakataren Gwamnatin Tarayya, Babachir Dabid Lawal da tsohon Shugaban Majalisar Wakilai, Yakubu Dogara na cikin jagororin fada da bayar da tikitin takarar Musulmi da Musulmi, inda suka jagoranci fadan daga cikin gida kasancewarsu ’ya’yan jam’iyyar ta APC.

Hakazalika, akwai rahotannin da ke nuna wasu a Fadar Shugaban Kasa da suka nuna goyon bayan takarar Shugaban Majalisar Dattijai, Ahmad Lawan a lokacin zaben fid-da-gwanin Jam’iyyar APC har yanzu ba su ba da kai bori ya hau ba ga tafiyar Tinubu.

Duk da fitar da takardar sanarwa ta manema labarai da Fadar Shugaban Kasa ta yi cewa za ta mara wa takarar ’ya’yan Jam’iyyar APC ne kadai, wasu ’yan kanzagin Atiku na PDP na cewa suna da goyon bayan wasu da ke kewaye da Shugaban Kasar.

Abu na karshe da ake yakar Tinubu da shi a ciki da wajen APC shi ne batun rashin cikakkiyar lafiyarsa.

Atiku

Tsohon Mataimakin Shugaban Kasa Atiku Abubakar yana takarar ce a karo na shida. Mai shekara 75, Atiku Abubakar wanda ya fito daga Jihar Adamawa da ke yankin Arewa maso Gabas ya yi takara a 1993 da shekarun 2007 da 2011 da 2015 da kuma 2019 a karkashin jam’iyyu daban-daban.

Bayan shafe shekara takwas tana adawa, Jam’iyyar PDP za ta yi amfani da halin da kasar nan take ciki na matsalar tattalin arziki da rashin tsaro, domin dawowa kan mulki.

Yayin da wasu da ke tare da Wazirin Adamawan suka yi amanna cewar takarar Atiku karbabbiya ce daga dukkan sassan kasar nan, wasu mambobin Jam’iyyar PDP daga Kudu na kallon takararsa a matsayin kafar ungulu ce ga damar da yankinsu ke da shi na yin takara da kuma ci gaban da wanzar da mulki a Arewa.

Alkaluma sun tabbatar da takun-sakar da ke tafiya tsakanin bangaren Atiku da na Gwamnan Ribas, Nyesome Wike za ta taka rawa wajen dagula wa Jam’iyyar PDP lissafi matukar ba su sasanta ba zuwa lokacin zaben.

Wasu na hangen cewa Wike zai tsaya wa dan takarar Jam’iyyar Labour ne, Peter Obi, tare da kin amincewa da duk wata yarjejeniya a karshe.

Wannan, baya ga irin ratsa yankunan da PDP ta yi kaka-gida da Peter Obi zai yi, wato yankunan Kudu maso Gabas da Kudu maso Kudu da kuma Arewa ta Tsakiya wadanda zuwa yanzu wasu masu fada-a-ji a yankunan suka nuna inda alkibilarsu take.

Sannan Peter Obi yana kara kaimin yin kamfen a cocicoci da kuma kafafen sada zumunta na zamani.

Peter Obi

Dan shekara 62 kuma tsohon Gwamnan Jihar Anambra a karkashin Jam’iyyar APGA, Peter Obi na da farin jini da karbuwa a wajen matasa da kuma fusatattun ’ya’yan Jam’iyyar PDP a yankunan da ke kallon takarar Atiku a matsayin kutungwilar hana Kudancin Najeriya shiga fadar gwamnati a shekarar 2023.

Duk da haka masana na ganin akwai jan-aiki a gaban Petet Obi, domin gagarumar aikin da ke gabansa na ratsawa sauran yankuna da sassan kasar don samun karbuwa.

Fafatawa ce tsakanin APC da PDP —Farfesa Fage

Da yake hasashe a kan damar da ’yan takara ukun ke da shi wajen lashe zaben 2023, wani mai sharhi a kan harkokin siyasa, Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fage, ya ce fafatawa ce mai zafi a tsakanin Tinubu da Atiku.

Fage, wanda malami ne a Sashen Kimiyyar Siyasa a Jami’ar Bayero da ke Kano, ya ce dukkan manyan ’yan takarar uku za su shiga fagen fafatawa ne da kalubale iri daya da bai wuce la’akari da shiyyar da suka fito ba.

Game da Tinubu, Fage ya ce yana da dama ce don kasancewarsa a jam’iyya mai mulki da kuma tulin gwamnoni da ’yan majalisa a tarayya da jihohi.

Sai dai shi ma ya tabbatar da matsalar takarar Musulmi da Mataimaki Musulmi cewa ita ce babbar kalubalen da jam’iyyar za ta fuskanta.

“Idan ka dauki batun ka yi nazarinsa da kyau, za ka ga jam’iyyar na da kalubale a cikin biyar daga cikin shiyyoyi shida,” inji shi.

Ya ce tunda dan takarar ya fito ne daga Kudu maso Yamma, inda ake ganin dan takarar zai samu goyon bayansu, yayin da a shiyyar Arewa maso Yamma da ta kasance cibiyar Jam’iyyar APC, za ta samu kalubale idan aka yi la’akari da matsalolin rashin tsaro da suka hada da ’yan bindiga hakan zai shafi jam’iyyar.

Sannan dan takarar Jam’iyyar NNPP ya fito ne daga yankin. Ya ce jam’iyyar za ta iya tabuka wani abu wajen samun kuri’u musamman a jihohin Borno da Yobe inda mataimakin dan takarar ya fito, yayin da a Kudu maso Kudu da Arewa ta Tsakiya jam’iyyar za ta sha kashi.

Game da Jam’iyyar PDP da dan takararta Atiku, Farfesa Fage ya ce duk da kasancewarta jam’iyyar adawa mafi girma, amma za ta fuskanci matsalar rashin samun hadin kai a tsakaninsu tun bayan rasa mulki da suka yi, dadin dadawa ga sabanin da ke tsakanin Gwamnan Jihar Ribas, Nyesome Wike wanda barazana ce ga rasa yankin Kudu maso Kudu da ake ganin matattarar PDP ce.

Sannan ya bayyana yankin Kudu maso Gabas da ta kasance matattarar PDP cewa tana neman subuce mata saboda bullar Peter Obi.

Da yake auna matsayin Peter Obi, Farfesa Fage ya ce dan takarar na Jam’iyyar LP mai karfi a shiyyar Kudu maso Gabas zai iya yin tasirin da ko Ojukwu bai samu ba a duk fitowa takarar da ya yi na neman Shugaban Kasa, wanda kuma zai iya yin tasiri a yankin Arewa ta Tsakiya saboda maganar addini.

“Baya ga haka, jam’iyyar za ta fuskanci matsala kusan a duka sassan kasar nan a dalilin yadda ’yan Kudu ke amfani da kalmomin cin mutunci a maimakon kankantar da kai da lalama ga sauran yankunan,” inji shi.

Game da Jam’iyyar NNPP da dan takararta Kwankwaso, Farfesa Fage ya ce matsalarta daya ce da ta Jam’iyyar Labour ta Peter Obi, domin ba su ratsa ko’ina a jihohi ba, ban da wasu jihohi a shiyyar Arewa maso Yamma.

A tattaunawarsa da daya daga cikin wakilanmu, Farfesa Gbade Ojo ya goyi bayan abin da Farfesa Fage ya bayyana na cewa zaben zai zama fafatawa ce a tsakanin Tinubu da Atiku kawai.

“Ka san a siyasa, musamman in an zo maganar zabe, awa 24 ma tana da tsawo amma a yanzu dai kafin a fara kamfen muna da ’yan takara hudu masu neman kujerar Shugaban Kasa.

“Duk da cewa akwai su da dama, amma manya daga ciki su hudu ne kawai da suka hada da Tinubu da Atiku da Obi da Kwankwaso.

“Matsalar ita ce akwai wasu dalilai da ke nuna wanda zai lashe zaben daga baya. Tinubu ya fara sa kafar hagu da daukar Mataimaki Musulmi inda Kiristoci fiye da miliyan 80 suke cewa ba a yi musu adalci ba.

“Shi kuwa Atiku, wanda ya kamata a ce yana da karfi sosai, jam’iyyarsa na fama da matsalolin cikin gida saboda rashin gane hikimar bai wa sauran yankunan takarar Shugaban Kasa da na shugaban jam’iyyar.

“Shi kuma Peter Obi da yake samun tagomashin matasa ba ya da wata mikakkiyar shimfida da ta ratsa kowane sashi na mutanensa.

“Abin da mamaki a ce mutumin da ba ya da Sanata ko dan Majalisar Wakilai kai ko da kansila a ce za a tabuka wani abin kirki.

“Ba dai yanzu ba ta yiwu sai wani lokaci in ya assasa jama’arsa a ko’ina.

“Shi kuwa Kwankwaso yana da farin jini da karbuwa ne a jiharsa ta Kano kawai da kewayenta,” inji shi.

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Ahmad Munkaila

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